Summary Bitcoin is in a confirmed crypto winter, with further declines expected until approximately September 2026. I anticipate BTC could bottom near $25k, reflecting an 80% peak-to-trough decline consistent with prior cycles. My preferred bear market strategy is holding the YieldMax MSTR Short Option Income Strategy ETF, which benefits from BTC declines and offers a 73% trailing yield. While bearish for 2026, I expect BTC to reach new all-time highs in the next price cycle, monitoring for a bottom around September 2026. Back at the beginning of December 2025, I wrote about how Bitcoin USD ( BTC-USD ) likely peaked and was already in the crypto winter or bear market phase of this price cycle, with more significant declines on the way. Crypto winters tend to last for about one year from the peak price in each 4-year price cycle. So, I'm expecting Bitcoin's price to bottom approximately in September 2026 (about one year after the October 2025 peak price). As a result, I'm expecting further declines in the price of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ) in 2026, which tracks the price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin's price consolidated between $80k and $100k from the second half of November through January 2026. Bitcoin just closed the month of January below $80k, which confirms that the crypto winter is continuing. Back in December 2025, after the first initial sharp price decline, many investors were saying that Bitcoin was in an extended bull cycle. The thesis behind that idea was that institutional buying would offset retail selling and change the dynamics of the previous 4-year price cycles. Some investors were saying something similar back in 2021 that more widespread adoption of Bitcoin would extend or change the standard 4-year price cycle. However, I didn't buy that theory. The reason for that was that the technicals were showing a bearish divergence on Bitcoin's monthly chart. This occurred in the current price cycle, and it also occurred back in 2021. Plus, the price cycles have been relatively consistent, lasting about 1,050 days from the price bottom to the price peak. So, I theorized that this price cycle would act similarly. The peak price in October 2025 was about 1,050 days from the price bottom in 2022. Bitcoin's Monthly Price Chart Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Monthly Price Chart w/ RSI & MACD (TradingView) The bearish divergence for the current price cycle occurred from the peak price in January 2025 through the peak price in October 2025. The price made a higher high from about $110k in January to the October peak price of $126k. At the same time, the RSI made a lower high. A similar bearish divergence occurred in the last price cycle back in 2021. The MACD confirmed the bearish change in trend as the blue MACD line crossed below the red signal line while the histogram bars turned red. January just marked another red month. January just closed below the $80k level. This drove the RSI to move below the 50 level on the monthly chart, which is bearish. The price is now down about 39% from the peak. The price of Bitcoin tends to decline by about 80% during the crypto winters. This would take the price down to about $25k. I don't know if Bitcoin's price will go that low, but I do expect further declines for Bitcoin until approximately September 2026, which would mark about one year from October's price peak. The RSI indicator tends to drop into the 40s at the bottom of the price cycles. So, I will keep a close eye on the price action and provide any necessary updates. WNTR For The Bear Market The strategy that I chose for this bear market is holding the YieldMax MSTR Short Option Income Strategy ETF ( WNTR ). This ETF acts as a short play on Strategy Inc ( MSTR ), which is highly levered to Bitcoin. Strategy holds 712,647 Bitcoin, which is worth about $55 billion at a Bitcoin price of $77,100 as of the time I am writing this. YieldMax MSTR Short Option Income Strategy ETF (WNTR) Daily Chart vs. BTCUSD & IBIT (TradingView) WNTR's daily chart above shows the ETF's outperformance as compared to BTC-USD and IBIT since the October Bitcoin price peak. It is important to note that the chart was adjusted for distributions. WNTR has been paying weekly distributions since October 2025. The ETF previously paid monthly distributions until it shifted its payouts to a weekly frequency. WNTR currently has a trailing 12-month distribution yield of about 73%. However, keep in mind that the distributions fluctuate weekly. So, the actual annual yield could differ going forward. Keep in mind that the distributions are taxed as income and not at the lower dividend rates. This is because the distributions are derived from an options strategy. I choose to hold WNTR in a ROTH IRA to avoid being taxed for the distributions and for the capital gains when I choose to sell. The Risks For The Investment Thesis My thesis largely depends on Bitcoin's price acting similarly to previous cycles. Bitcoin's price may act differently this time. The price could rally to an all-time high in 2026—the opposite of what I expect. Therefore, nimble investors should keep a close eye on the price action to make moves that fit their comfort level. That could be holding Bitcoin over the long term for some people. It could also mean dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin over the long term, regardless of price action. Final Thoughts While I am bearish on Bitcoin for most of 2026, I do think the price will make all-time highs in the next price cycle. I will watch for a potential price bottom, which may occur in September 2026 if this bear market is consistent in length with the previous cycles. Of course, I will be ready to shift my strategy when the price action calls for it.
